China unlikely to alter monetary policy

BEIJING, April 28 (Reuters) - China will not tighten monetary policy because an easy stance is still very much needed to stimulate investment and consumption at a time of slack global demand, the China Securities Journal said in an editorial on Tuesday.

After a surge of 4.58 trillion yuan in new loans in the first quarter, speculation is swirling that Beijing might apply the brakes to bank lending for fear that a credit binge will worsen banks' asset quality and finance an array of poor investments.

Ba Shusong, an economist with the Development Research Centre, a think-tank under the State Council, China's cabinet, on Monday became the first government economist to call for a tighter monetary policy. [ID:nPEK353117]

However, the official China Securities Journal said China must keep its current credit policy to achieve its target of 8 percent growth in gross domestic product this year.

"With such a broad goal, China has no choice in its monetary policy and needs to tolerate short-term risks," the paper said in a front-page editorial.

"It would be dangerous to diminish the force of monetary policy now, as doing so would discount the results achieved to date and lead to greater risks," the paper warned.

It said China would need new loans of between 6.66 trillion yuan and 8.17 trillion yuan this year to hit 8 percent growth.

Credit expansion can swiftly stimulate investment and consumption -- crucial engines for China given that net exports subtracted 0.2 percentage points from the annual first-quarter GDP growth rate of 6.1 percent, the paper said.

It said net exports might also drag down GDP growth this quarter if the global financial crisis turns out to be more severe than expected.

"At that point, we would face an extremely challenging task to safeguard 8 percent growth and it would be necessary to significantly increase the impact of monetary and fiscal policy," the paper commented.

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